How to Find+EV Bets on MLB?
Many bettors have likely heard of the term “expected value,” but not all understand its true meaning, and even fewer actively apply it to their wagers. In simple terms, Expected Value (EV) is the predicted average outcome of a variable over time. It’s calculated by summing all possible outcomes, each weighted by its probability of occurring. While EV is commonly associated with sports betting, particularly MLB betting, its principles apply broadly, including investments and any scenario involving probabilities. Start exploring these tools today at AI20Picks.
In sports betting, especially MLB betting, EV measures the gap between the bettor’s expectations of an event’s outcome and the sportsbook’s expectations. This gap is expressed as a percentage, quantifying whether a bet is mathematically profitable. The objective for sports bettors is to focus on positive EV bets — those with a higher probability of long-term profit. The greater the profit margin, the better the betting opportunity.
What is Positive EV Betting?
Positive EV betting, as explained earlier, is betting on a play that has a positive probability gap, or Positive Expected Value, between the bettor’s expectations and the sportsbook’s expectations on the outcome of an event.
Value +EV Bets Finder
The screenshot above illustrates how AI20Picks can help you identify profitable opportunities and make informed betting decisions. For example, in a Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals game, AI20Picks highlights the top value odds for the Cubs’ win at 1.57 on Betway, offering a value of +3.79% compared to the estimated true probability of 67.5%. Similarly, for a New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox game, the Yankees’ win is available at 2.60 on DraftKings, with a value of +2.68%, exceeding the true probability of 41.1%.
Using AI20Picks’ value-driven tools, you can confidently target bets where the odds outperform the implied probabilities. This approach allows you to maximize your edge and make data-informed betting choices, especially for MLB games where statistics and analytics play a crucial role. Start exploring these tools today at AI20Picks.
Why is Expected Value Important to Bettors?
So now that you know what Expected Value is, and, more importantly, Positive Expected Value, let’s talk in detail about why it is so important.
The easiest way to explain this is using a coin flip and probabilities.
The unfortunate part of sports betting is that when a sportsbook deems a bet a 50/50 bet, the odds will be priced at -110 on each side. This is the vig that sportsbooks charge. So, using a coin flip example, both sides would be priced at -110 odds, which has an implied probability of 52.38% each for heads and tails.
Let’s say you flipped the coin 100 times, and bet $100 on heads every time at -110 odds ($100 bet wins $90). Statistically speaking, the results would be heads 50 times and tails 50 times. So, for every time it was heads you would have profited a total of $4,500 (50 * $90), and for the 50 times it was tails you would have lost a total of $5,000 (50 * 100) leaving you with a net loss of $500. What we have learned is that just because it might land on heads one individual time, you know that in the long run you would not be able to profit with this strategy. This is an example of a negative expected value bet.
Next example: now let’s say we discovered that we are using a weighted coin, and that heads actually has a 60% chance and only 40% for tails. In this case, for 100 coin flips we would profit a total of $5400 on heads (60 * $90) and only lose $4000 on tails (40 * $100), profiting $1400. Again, just because one flip of the coin might land on tails, you would know that over time you will make money with this strategy. This is what positive expected value betting is.
As a sports bettor, particularly in MLB where statistics and matchups are crucial, it is important to determine what the expected value of a bet is, because that is the difference between profiting over time betting on sports or losing money doing so.
How do I Calculate Expected Value in Sports Betting?
Luckily, AI20Picks has an expected value calculator that can do this for you. But, if you want to understand the math behind it, then please see below.
The formula is: Expected Value = (Winning implied probability % * profit if bet won) — (Losing implied probability % * stake).
If the calculated number is positive, it means the bet has a positive expected value, and if we simulated that event an infinite number of times, you would always net a profit. This is especially valuable for MLB bettors who can capitalize on the long 162-game season.
So, going back to the original 50% coin flip scenario, let’s see how much of a negative EV bet that was:
(50% * $90) — (50% * $100) = -5%. This means the bet has a negative expected value of 5%, or a negative 5% expected profit margin.
Now, let’s see what it would look like with the weighted coin example:
(60% * $90) — (40% * $100) = 14%. This would be a positive expected value bet of 14%, or a 14% expected profit margin.
Positive Expected Value Betting Strategies
Positive EV betting is a great way to evaluate sports bets, but that doesn’t mean all Positive EV bets should be wagered on blindly. There are still strategies and best practices involved.
The most important strategy is to look at the market width of the betting line. Market width can be used as an indicator of confidence in the betting lines for that market. It is essentially the difference between the two opposite betting lines.
In situations where both numbers are negative, you would add the last two digits of the two lines together. For example, if the lines are -110 and -114, the market width would be 24 cents (10 + 14).
The general rule of thumb is to avoid markets above 25 cents market width, particularly for non-player prop markets. Anything at 15 cents or below is considered a very tight market. This is especially relevant for MLB betting, where run lines and totals often have tight market widths.
Player props, however, are treated differently due to their higher variance compared to game props. For MLB, this includes pitcher strikeout totals, batter hit markets, and home run props. The recommended market width limit for player props can go up to 40 cents because they rarely have widths under 25 cents. It’s also advised to stick to player props with at least a 5% Positive EV to account for the higher variance. Ultimately, your risk tolerance as a bettor will dictate your market width target.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks are quicker to limit users who bet heavily on player props. The best rule of thumb for player props is moderation. Some sharp bettors avoid them altogether, while others enjoy betting on them as long as they follow the strategies mentioned above. For MLB betting, focusing on starting pitcher matchups and team statistics often provides more consistent opportunities. The key is to find what works for you and approach betting with a strategy in mind.
This article was produced using artificial intelligence technology. While care has been taken to ensure quality and accuracy, readers should be aware that this content was not written by a human author.
