AI is revolutionizing NBA player prop betting in 2025. By analyzing massive datasets, AI tools provide bettors with precise predictions on player performance, uncovering opportunities where market odds may not align with actual probabilities.
ArbBets provides AI-powered tools for sports betting, including arbitrage finders, value betting tools, AI picks, player props, and odds calculators. The platform helps users identify profitable betting opportunities. By leveraging AI technology, ArbBets enhances the accuracy of NBA props predictions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Expected to average 24.6 PPG, thriving against weak defenses.
- Nikola Jokic: Predicted 12.5 RPG, with standout performances in home games.
- Luka Doncic: Projected 9.5 APG, excelling against high-pace teams.
- Stephen Curry: Anticipated to make 4.8 3-pointers per game, especially at home.
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Set for 2.5 BPG, shining against top offenses.
- Mikal Bridges: Averaging 1.8 steals per game, capitalizing on turnover-prone teams.
- Domantas Sabonis: A reliable double-double machine, especially after rest.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Predicted 34.5 MPG, with more minutes in close games.
- Kevin Durant: Maintaining a 49.5% FG%, peaking after 2+ rest days.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Projected 9.8 FTA per game, excelling against physical teams.
These predictions leverage AI’s ability to factor in historical stats, player conditions, matchups, and game scenarios. Bettors can use this data to identify high-value opportunities while considering game-specific contexts like rest days, home/away splits, and opponent strengths.
1. Victor Wembanyama — Points Per Game
AI predicts Victor Wembanyama will average 24.6 points per game, a jump of 3.2 points compared to current market projections. This expectation builds on his rookie season performance, where he averaged 21.4 PPG, largely due to his growing role on offense [3].
Key factors behind this projection include his improved shooting efficiency, reflected in a 58.3% true shooting percentage, and a higher 31.4% usage rate. AI models also highlight his strong performances against weaker defenses — he averages 28.1 PPG against bottom-10 defensive teams [2][3]. However, his scoring dips slightly by 4.2% during back-to-back games, and he sees a +2.1 PPG boost when playing at home [2].
For bettors, AI suggests focusing on over/under markets for Wembanyama’s scoring, especially against teams with below-average interior defense [2][1]. His scoring patterns show consistent increases in such matchups, with a noticeable rise in usage during high-stakes games [3].
As Wembanyama’s scoring trends continue to evolve, other players like Jokic are also showcasing intriguing opportunities in different statistical categories…
2. Nikola Jokic — Rebounds Per Game
AI models predict that Nikola Jokic will average 12.5 rebounds per game in the 2025 season. This is an increase from his career average of 11.8 RPG [2].
This projection factors in Jokic’s outstanding positioning and the Nuggets’ team strategy on the boards. His rebounding numbers tend to vary based on specific game situations:
- Home Games: Gains an extra +1.2 RPG, making these ideal for overs.
- Back-to-Back Games: Drops by -0.8 RPG, creating value in unders.
- Against Bottom-10 Rebounding Teams: Averages an impressive +2.1 RPG, prime for overs.
For betting, consider targeting overs when the line is below 11.5, especially in home games or matchups against weaker rebounding teams. Game pace and opponent rebounding rates are also crucial factors to evaluate when analyzing his potential output.
Jokic’s dominance on the boards often complements his playmaking, which ties directly into the next prediction about Luka Doncic’s assists…
3. Luka Doncic — Assists Per Game
Dallas has revamped its offense to heavily rely on Luka Doncic, with 42% of possessions starting through him [1]. AI models predict Doncic will average 9.5 assists per game, which is a bump of +0.9 APG compared to his career average. This increase is largely due to Dallas leaning more on his playmaking abilities [1].
Key Factors Influencing Assists:
- Home Games: Expect a boost of +1.1 APG (ideal for betting overs).
- Back-to-Back Games: Numbers dip by -0.7 APG (unders could be undervalued).
- Against High-Pace Teams: Assists rise by +1.3 APG.
- Against Top Defenses: Output drops by -0.9 APG.
The pace of the game and the strength of opposing defenses significantly affect Doncic’s assist numbers, much like how Nikola Jokic’s rebounding stats are influenced by similar variables.
When to Bet on Doncic’s Assists:
- Lines under 9.0 APG: These offer strong value.
- Against Bottom-10 Defenses: His assists spike by +1.5 APG.
- With a Full Roster: Team health supports his distribution.
Doncic tends to shine against weaker defensive teams, making his assist totals one of the most predictable and valuable props. His ability to orchestrate Dallas’ offense highlights how AI can pinpoint stat leaders in evolving systems. Up next: Stephen Curry’s dominance from beyond the arc. Stay tuned.
4. Stephen Curry — Three-Pointers Made
AI models project Stephen Curry to hit an average of 4.8 three-pointers per game during the 2025 season. The Golden State Warriors’ offensive system, which emphasizes floor spacing, plays a big role in boosting his numbers [2].
Curry’s dominance from beyond the arc can be compared to Luka Doncic’s growth as a playmaker — both thrive in systems that maximize their strengths.
Key Factors Influencing Performance:
- Playing at Chase Center adds an extra +0.7 three-pointers made (good for overs)
- Back-to-back games reduce his output by -0.5 three-pointers made (better for unders)
- Facing weak perimeter defenses leads to a +1.2 three-pointers made increase
- Additional rest days result in a +0.9 three-pointers made boost
Betting Tips:
- Bet on over 4.5 three-pointers when the Warriors play teams with bottom-10 three-point defenses.
- Look for under opportunities during back-to-back games.
- Combine home games with favorable defensive matchups in parlays for added value.
The AI’s forecast builds on Curry’s career average of 4.5 three-pointers per game while incorporating his recent improvements in both attempts and accuracy [2].
5. Jaren Jackson Jr. — Blocks Per Game
Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to average 2.5 blocks per game, which is a slight increase of +0.2 compared to the 2024–25 season. This aligns with Memphis’ impressive 12.3% block rate, the highest in the league [4]. His defensive impact is similar to Mikal Bridges’ steal potential (discussed next), where specific matchups can create opportunities for strategic bets.
Best Betting Opportunities
- Home Games vs. Fast-Paced Opponents: Focus on teams averaging 55+ paint touches per game [4].
- After 2+ Rest Days: Blocks per game rise by +0.3 in these scenarios.
- Blocks + Steals Parlays: Consider this against teams prone to turnovers for added value.
For optimal results, target the over when the line is set below 2.3 blocks. In 2024 home games, this strategy hit 78% of the time [4]. A similar matchup-driven betting approach was highlighted with Wembanyama’s scoring potential (prediction #1).
6. Mikal Bridges — Steals Per Game
Mikal Bridges shines on defense, particularly in generating steals. AI models project him averaging 1.8 steals per game this season, a slight bump of +0.1 from 2023–24. This uptick is tied to Brooklyn’s emphasis on perimeter defense and matchup awareness [2].
Just like Jaren Jackson Jr.’s block trends (prediction #5), Bridges’ steals vary depending on the game situation.
High-Value Betting Scenarios
Bridges is especially effective at capitalizing on teams prone to turnovers. Consider betting on the over for steals when:
- The line is 1.5 steals or lower
- Opponents average 15+ turnovers per game
- Games are at home, with 2+ rest days
Risk Factors
Steal numbers can vary throughout the season. Teams with quick-shot offenses or strong ball security can limit Bridges’ opportunities. Fatigue also plays a role — AI models predict a -0.2 reduction in steals during back-to-back games, reflecting its impact on his defensive intensity.
Betting Strategy Integration
To improve success rates, pair Bridges’ steals props with detailed defensive matchup data. This approach helps identify optimal scenarios for betting [2].
7. Domantas Sabonis — Double-Doubles
Domantas Sabonis stands out in 2025 as one of the most dependable players for double-doubles in the NBA. His consistent performance creates clear opportunities for savvy bettors.
Key Betting Opportunities
The best chances to bet on Sabonis arise when he plays against small-ball lineups, which improve his rebounding efficiency by 15% [1]. Another prime scenario is when he has 2+ days of rest and faces teams ranked in the bottom-10 for rebounding. These matchups are ideal for over bets [2].
Factors That Could Affect Performance
A few variables might influence Sabonis’ ability to secure a double-double:
- Strong Defensive Opponents: Teams with a solid interior presence could reduce his scoring opportunities.
- Blowout Games: If the game becomes one-sided, his minutes might be limited.
Using Advanced Metrics
Incorporating advanced metrics, such as rebounding efficiency against specific opponents, can refine betting strategies. This approach mirrors the opponent-focused analysis seen in Jokic’s section (#2). Combining over bets on points and rebounds often yields value.
Just as Wembanyama thrives against weaker defenses (prediction #1), Sabonis’ dominance on the boards against small-ball teams makes him a reliable choice for bettors.
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Minutes Played
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to average 34.5 minutes per game in 2025, a bump of +2.0 minutes compared to past seasons. This shift reflects a trend seen with other top players like Domantas Sabonis (prediction #7), where key contributors take on more responsibility in high-stakes situations.
Best Betting Opportunities
Gilgeous-Alexander’s minutes offer clear patterns for betting. Close games and matchups where he’s had 2+ days of rest stand out as the best chances to bet the over. This strategy mirrors the AI-driven analysis applied to Wembanyama’s scoring and Jokic’s rebounding, focusing on specific game situations to identify high-value plays.
Factors Impacting Minutes
Several factors could influence how his minutes are distributed:
- Tight scheduling weeks: Could lead to reduced playing time.
- Game competitiveness: Close contests often mean extended minutes.
- Backup guard depth: Availability of other guards may impact his workload.
- Load management: Teams may limit minutes to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
For the best betting angles, target home games with plenty of rest or tightly contested matchups, as these are where Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to log the most minutes.
9. Kevin Durant — Field Goal Percentage
AI predicts Kevin Durant will maintain a 49.5% field goal percentage in 2025. This aligns closely with his career average of 49.3% and builds on last season’s 50.4% efficiency. His steady performance provides a solid metric for bettors, much like Domantas Sabonis’ consistent double-doubles (prediction #7).
Key Performance Indicators
Rest stands out as a major factor in Durant’s shooting efficiency. Games following 2+ days of rest are projected to result in a strong 51.4% field goal percentage. This trend highlights the importance of recovery time in maintaining his shooting accuracy.
High-Value Betting Scenarios
The best opportunities for betting on Durant’s field goal percentage come during home games where he’s had sufficient rest. These scenarios often lead to percentages above 50%, making “over” bets appealing. On the other hand, back-to-back games are riskier, with efficiency typically dropping below 48%.
Impact Factors
Durant’s performance is shaped by defensive matchups, rest periods, and whether he’s playing at home or on the road. His mid-range scoring ability remains a key driver of his efficiency. AI also tracks real-time defensive trends and shot selection data, helping bettors identify actionable patterns.
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo — Free Throw Attempts
AI predicts Giannis Antetokounmpo will average 9.8 free throw attempts per game in 2025 — a 15.3% increase compared to the 2023–24 season. His free throw attempts vary significantly depending on the game situation, much like Kevin Durant’s efficiency trends (see prediction #9).
Key Performance Drivers
Giannis tends to draw the most fouls when facing physical defensive teams, especially during home games, where his free throw attempts can climb to 11.2 per game. This mirrors the matchup-based strategies highlighted in Jaren Jackson Jr.’s block predictions (see prediction #5).
High-Value Betting Scenarios
Home games offer the best opportunities for betting, particularly against teams with a physical style of defense. Look for overs when Giannis is up against opponents with weak rim protection.
Impact Variables
- Free throw accuracy: Giannis hit 64.1% of his attempts in 2023–24. His efficiency in close games could influence totals.
- Defensive matchups: Opposing teams’ defensive strategies play a major role in his free throw volume.
Conclusion
AI is changing the game for prop betting by analyzing player performance data from multiple angles. These tools provide insights by blending historical stats, current form, and real-time updates [2]. One of AI’s standout abilities is spotting mispriced odds using pattern recognition, a highlight across all 10 predictions.
